From bb1c508c998aee5a03996aba0ffa05f3270af88d Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: derek holloway Date: Wed, 18 Feb 2026 15:17:10 -0800 Subject: [PATCH] Work on optimizing the model --- Todo.txt | 9 +- WebServer/AIPython/ai-predictor.py | 4 +- WebServer/AIPython/ai-trainer.py | 19 +- WebServer/AIPython/data/model.keras | Bin 88136 -> 92792 bytes WebServer/AIPython/data/stocks.preview.csv | 402 ++++++++++----------- WebServer/AIPython/features.py | 36 +- 6 files changed, 250 insertions(+), 220 deletions(-) diff --git a/Todo.txt b/Todo.txt index 5faa27dc..e23016d4 100644 --- a/Todo.txt +++ b/Todo.txt @@ -1,7 +1,2 @@ -Raw prices are useless to the AI because $500 today isn't the same as $500 in 1990. Use relative indicators: - RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is it overbought? - Moving Average Crossovers: Is the trend up? - Distance from MA: (Close / Moving_Average_20) - 1 - Volume Change: df['Volume'].pct_change() - -Fix AI returning the Current market price as the prediction \ No newline at end of file +Fix AI returning the Current market price as the prediction +During training it keeps crashing with NAN \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/WebServer/AIPython/ai-predictor.py b/WebServer/AIPython/ai-predictor.py index df229552..5573d52a 100644 --- a/WebServer/AIPython/ai-predictor.py +++ b/WebServer/AIPython/ai-predictor.py @@ -20,7 +20,7 @@ def Predict(): df = features.CleanDF(df) # Drop our predictor - df.drop('Target_Close_Tomorrow', axis=1, inplace=True) + df.drop('Target_Close', axis=1, inplace=True) # Lazy load this so it doesnt interfere with yfinance from keras.models import load_model @@ -37,6 +37,6 @@ def Predict(): # 'predictions' will be a 2D array, flatten it if you want a simple list flat_predictions = predictions.flatten().tolist() - print(f"Predicted Target_Close_Tomorrow: {flat_predictions}") + print(f"Predicted Target_Close: {flat_predictions}") return json.dumps(flat_predictions) \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/WebServer/AIPython/ai-trainer.py b/WebServer/AIPython/ai-trainer.py index c2d9e76e..ebc90d83 100644 --- a/WebServer/AIPython/ai-trainer.py +++ b/WebServer/AIPython/ai-trainer.py @@ -5,7 +5,7 @@ import datapuller import os os.environ["CUDA_VISIBLE_DEVICES"] = "-1" from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split -from keras import Sequential, layers, optimizers +from keras import Sequential, layers, optimizers, losses def TrainAI(): # Pull New Data @@ -17,8 +17,9 @@ def TrainAI(): # Load the dataset dataset = pd.read_parquet(os.path.join(DATA_DIR, "stocks.parquet")) - X = dataset.drop('Target_Close_Tomorrow', axis=1) - Y = dataset['Target_Close_Tomorrow'] + X = dataset.drop('Target_Close', axis=1) + X = dataset.drop('Target_Direction', axis=1) + Y = dataset['Target_Close'] # Show the datatypes print(dataset.dtypes) @@ -34,15 +35,15 @@ def TrainAI(): dnn_linear_model = Sequential([ layers.Input(shape=(train_features.shape[1],)), # Load the feature count dynamically normalizer, - layers.Dense(64, activation='relu'), - layers.Dense(64, activation='relu'), + layers.Dense(64, activation='elu'), + layers.Dense(64, activation='elu'), layers.Dense(1) ]) # Configure the model dnn_linear_model.compile( - optimizer=optimizers.Adam(learning_rate=0.001), - loss='mean_absolute_error' + optimizer=optimizers.Adam(learning_rate=0.0001, clipvalue=1.0), + loss=losses.Huber() ) # Show the summary before training the model @@ -52,7 +53,7 @@ def TrainAI(): Training_Data = dnn_linear_model.fit( train_features, train_labels, - batch_size=1024, + batch_size=64, epochs=100, # Show progress verbose=1, @@ -76,5 +77,7 @@ def TrainAI(): test_features, test_labels, verbose=0 ) + print(f"Test Results: {test_results}") + # Save the model dnn_linear_model.save(os.path.join(DATA_DIR, "model.keras")) \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/WebServer/AIPython/data/model.keras b/WebServer/AIPython/data/model.keras index 99df110e102201d53dd4e9b4eeaa5123a1926c21..e8013ca106103f38994751572e92e405111dac03 100644 GIT binary patch literal 92792 zcmeFZ30#lc);RtxsZbiEqIr~5Dyh`7R!I`2QXwf7g-B9K2qDRwc_t1{=8&nLwPenm z;gI2w;gC6Go_j?T9BjS);|J9ZG;Db6$b`6>p1uuPGr)j^n3R;L#F$~H0{nNp`LnY9l;R*2rM*qQR0~3bFq_%T3 z9Vd0195*OFB{eQNF18-q#E}UJQbo$(n3}@j{fER2NR5iGA(VrYy<>YLjS&Q=@BQ(#TZ*nug!u*FPq8z~Crp;BQmyTZ@Q;bEMQm z{rpYqaj(HJDJD6khA0DL5>jf2lpHf?(6<$>FQ_MPe9eea-|(p!a(Ggz#1YbB)HVHM zI!HDD_`Cv!Cl8BBh#wPE)BAT*tH&hqdzk+tu~D_VMS>qI^LcGAei_|%#;aF&Q+8Z#g@KCPCIB&m`d zmoTzsrXy40qWZ_j)IimV1xel{#wA3>OKm0L5lq>)XiQJVIvbHo~)gH z9g}{;=Rd5eYbCKw$~X3?Vf4Rk^dD7>7#Smp@7kUHS8o2#sZv9fKjHq`VgKt{KgywI z8GkT;jRNq4`M(K;Iu8GrV}56+|7y7(^-aV3AISU;(w_aj;7^E8jEniECH)ZnwW@Tz z$o*d;`oD31g1>v=pNAwH=_WBzN&poHQ5V-lkNzM`fiEhb@Py;dsqS+i&2hQ&yY z>+Jz47d347Fv%1fS<|PzU55@5Tute4N#h-r94}dg1CzhmVv_On7quW^xMa(v42Y5F zHc;B2!)uhRI(a%MIVLt<>Mts0z<`m%BsHW)_m7ecs-zk%tq!QaWS2@u^0xt{@xEmp zYqPZoB&EbBd^1rU;%x0*B#@Y4DK$MyFyB!B&()wB^d!h{T6$DW|CHegBc*x7B_~UW zN_~C9zLvg!gOg+{C&v%?n}S*h$>RIFn&gp*QE@SY;*t|;Xi`thZ*z=Fic5})OOG2c z@|(>gnTXPWL*i2<{`$se_3-2V#++_3I5;BQs_H;K0G!q!LANTyTR?J z`Fi`PHg4His*=f+m1PRwpuXk4{rOt=)U>a8>hs?+(x2$Mm)csHET=A?FJJp2C#(69 z$#m<=HR}5R9xgPvb7z?ZS>JzsTGvcg(XjSSxxU~>`fo)6-_9L_Y9<_3H*2f9w6u=T z>asG)WKOAhuXTyYWPg#WbpZ8zYG2>rPf|HqgWvJ5dL92-Db+TNu4`Y*zkl5y-}CRE z4D+Mnxd=ihocmQyF!>Zf1NpWm3hzVQDd4G9SJuHoSt*5OHrFAXE>gir{;O5lHkeaeCodW&8)zvN3-@-}NvcLMRYjQGKz1XYq z#@9T*b9YMlx@C~Cs(rpW>ZDhNx_sTxvTx;44u66BeYvAdu@1hzU5&a~SM)6jlHBw^ zo*xwWL4h9>_(6dm6!<}b9~AgOfgcq3L4h9>_(6dm6!<}be~bcuim24^ZedlRPP_E_XpLcj&;5(narxb;UA=b#J@=` zYa8V1*QS5Qzv?Ena6kC>4+#Cgy!dD{3TAg zuT^bF_5D}WJ~<>PIAjhakrYM{@kcf8%XsvH5$f7bulnwnU1ndXTmpVnbe!|w|aSb z`EMO4*Y(#xuGFj+#Ip{vKFO(n`Iks72LyXvz8vZ$cPY?oSKnZ-Uv{1DrrIi_(~9ss zkK?wT-NwwGCm8ozC3qhS_ENVG_HrHE!>im{!$bS(Hg}mUb3%QbxSsF#)yeBWnp{0y zgDn0CqPDzVe&<>K=Wzd9YX9HyWpo`yJ-;K}zZPG$l#ga$#XdKBVE6>~X%skgYpA6#kssX(c+8#Pjn7Q5bd> zWcxi)Vc96Y)7G0^Cm4cpSXZ)|F`cf;hVaR^=4|ZJQ8;3hh4#T;1zmMt$}ceI(t-^7 zWcDjqhQzVfJP~YCml6&zK)bk^l(f{4OnWHvolBl<{K^4d*w5h7trf7O*I{s_ZIqc% zAUJ=WNSVC9xI9pecMfdEGSh1Jvss&{^xzUg&ATLCnTS{O1m2Tti{|_8Lc!-Gs2Gwf zn5RUL6>cQ;HSYwL7io6yu3WAVfVyW}fsbq*%`3Iz@?GmerSl#5RI&{U&X0oF(rI|; zf*xBP3*|}12E4#4j{7a{gX5Dz(D-URWEu5Ct?7GVV5u@D;V{hU^a3jP@1eXiiTEVd zfDL`kINB*%9F>&KM{YfYPixwvU3^C_Rb2~(ycMk8?w~WL(%3$5gHZCE#gk_`;g*wX z=y_rXR2Y8|3JeC~dfzP0n0XLRUpzsdI&`4ueR^Vf`UNq4t_<`)ETZA15u9f=7-iRV z!1rksmTk+yB}0wa6Mus|_ZgsQ;e^fNQdpQjg_U(YIl$SQmjsT$h@5g*cdZFkoEa*5 z{(PxeMb!u`LXvpI$8gr)I~I*+#k0n9M~<)_z(4Db<$@u;@b1^6klXjYXnnUYs^3!N zB~_lB)5nlq^D@9GQQ$oNW5V>=()jljVgCK*Ts2k!{LhU*!=5haJ9Z#=#fY?X+c>uB zc~>myuuG^^nS%FJH`2bd=HRv*dlHGeKddz3a{nU}Y30POeL0y8U*gNxSVJ$KGsX zoJw0}KB8_j^syo+0IIqN;uYBxuHaNmAN~>24VuGFpMmIkzB^y)orD!B=LMDALAa;X znPtn6j2k}^B9uDQ>F3X({LWO&|FsP`7EYz09Y=))`$wU#b``1XEhJ4FCH7xu&e6jc z!lg@7@Z7mfPB>mh<;nVR$yi#W!0AO*+sDC;ClT1IZ+HH%$csyz_JC=lcl06oJ(UNI z<`UOc?l2Bj=v;k$v%?3d|$}TJ0&c7cbuLnPr~S> zYHZiyJ$*bJ%Fz+~g^|Nu_+CK>MjIc71$2vy`?P^%r^}SAC-9+FI+(I6oUIX1miO2# zQ9lQp9$G>R(){_J`$R6w%M&+M#iC4g2<8fBDD|2(3-3pxFn1Lf!9B#hNx)zHc1Jo_2Njcka&SV+hJ^ z+CtuMqB!P=4LUt@$J~{@;8=H#A#^LTJ^Hre8ejymYox(}*XXNsP3Z`?~P%&Fvy z8;06VLr?2PRJG_J$Wn$1>MhH_N%0W{8FlB`t1{7ZM}TnYQEz;a=g$hQbZJB%Ee=hR z;=*#L7a{UPt@J)z|540m76Np$+rEh^dQD=fI~!*+T0 zIJhVtWs5_^KIe4U_lYf+nH5q}Szj#b8^o1n4wy852B$a`AV15sl zr${UtSRq6w8gju2SIkoM#Ac}zId^UX-Zz_y(KZJ}Lp2>dwo@OKE7DlZI}I;8-={IV znqYUmY%bAs1sqyQHu~c+sJj~W>z|2BT&K`wxz=2g(5c)-7sFmsBj+Z+{}IkDCrhnoXeK?vthc-4JDai;9AG?3T_7 zJ@&oc1~N8J#iZ9Wz}`$0-t?Wy-Zzee=`kf-Fenwb6m=*2Yu1pNR}9-Y1j8GfW99k- z(C^kTmWBURH1wt|PtWg(&RP%YOMVUw%n4v|VJD0|R7RdFtOaW)FIMTC4OU^c?CsST zWm5~?s*74u?5W{+Y~ld!-(@hDga$*pVLWDQ`14(J9lo=sIeHrSf^(Atbfc{im&&

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--245116800,0.5785946846008301,0.5817335738318792,0.5754559099347509,0.5817335738318792,135866,0,0.0062776638971282495,-0.005394851422576563,0.004683497007369334,0.008763573302749999,0.0054241137101420644 --245030400,0.5817330479621887,0.5817330479621887,0.576501634286691,0.5785941615686013,88026,0,0.005231413675497731,0.0054241137101420644,0.004693112582004208,0.008634878904244298,0.005396285869235129 --244944000,0.5848722457885742,0.5859184908241768,0.5827796029641429,0.5827796029641429,166483,0,0.003138887860033912,0.005396285869235129,0.004696028429968295,0.008553220530207835,0.0 --244857600,0.5848722457885742,0.5848722457885742,0.5806870747046312,0.5848722457885742,166483,0,0.004185171083943007,0.0,0.004696648726374026,0.008361136919880502,-0.0017897528547179409 --244598400,0.5838254690170288,0.5848718661266026,0.5806866977594072,0.5848718661266026,116730,0,0.004185168367195402,-0.0017897528547179409,0.004695869099005431,0.007935227499850999,-0.021505332433006896 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--243648000,0.5785946846008301,0.5796410828467085,0.5744096644421656,0.5796410828467085,145434,0,0.005231418404542887,-0.0036038651171107494,0.011910626052495876,0.009027304385969591,-0.005425555937402349 --243388800,0.5754554867744446,0.5817331460553057,0.5733628063865068,0.5785942591324323,103334,0,0.008370339668798854,-0.005425555937402349,0.011608998824837517,0.009092885146326108,0.0036367342580034823 --243302400,0.5775482654571533,0.5806871921402967,0.5733630935268192,0.5754557749627721,110989,0,0.007324098613477492,0.0036367342580034823,0.008462551919929836,0.009136098974261254,-0.014492986951440523 --243216000,0.5691778659820557,0.5785942982576547,0.5691778659820557,0.5775480152753778,149261,0,0.009416432275599074,-0.014492986951440523,0.009606357501437823,0.009553913364758332,0.011029277783944691 --243129600,0.5754554867744446,0.5754554867744446,0.5702240722168143,0.5702240722168143,101421,0,0.005231414557630321,0.011029277783944691,0.009639175618165392,0.009885682476104612,0.0 --242784000,0.5754554867744446,0.5806869013320748,0.5733628063865068,0.5754554867744446,141606,0,0.0073240949455679605,0.0,0.009602555863463428,0.009871880139290837,-0.0018186260745073346 --242697600,0.5744089484214783,0.5785939633633764,0.5723162691032887,0.5754551926098839,97594,0,0.0062776942600877295,-0.0018186260745073346,0.009323133533750165,0.009872030218114603,-0.005464469533670413 --242611200,0.5712701082229614,0.5765015208692625,0.5670849399176392,0.5744090321873045,199014,0,0.009416580951623343,-0.005464469533670413,0.00924338553664245,0.009873826836544567,-0.016483795097869236 --242524800,0.5618534088134766,0.5681312172303055,0.5576683941436231,0.5681312172303055,166483,0,0.010462823086682338,-0.016483795097869236,0.009925710815309182,0.010374014917640654,-0.0018611685388680854 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e454e2d3..bf16789d 100644 --- a/WebServer/AIPython/features.py +++ b/WebServer/AIPython/features.py @@ -1,4 +1,5 @@ import pandas as pd +import numpy as np def MakeFeatures(df, i): # Remove the ticker column @@ -23,8 +24,39 @@ def MakeFeatures(df, i): # Add feature for volitility last 20 df['Volatility_20'] = df['Return'].transform(lambda x: x.rolling(20).std()) - # This is our training metric - df['Target_Close_Tomorrow'] = df['Close'].shift(-1).pct_change() + # RSI (Relative Strength Index) + delta = df['Close'].diff() + gain = (delta.where(delta > 0, 0)).rolling(window=14).mean() + loss = (-delta.where(delta < 0, 0)).rolling(window=14).mean() + rs = gain / loss + df['RSI'] = 100 - (100 / (1 + rs)) + + # Moving Average Crossover (Golden/Death Cross logic) + df['Moving_Average_5'] = df['Close'].rolling(window=5).mean() + df['Moving_Average_20'] = df['Close'].rolling(window=20).mean() + # if short term > long term (bullish), else 0 + df['Trend_Signal'] = (df['Moving_Average_5'] > df['Moving_Average_20']).astype(int) + + # Distance from MA (How overextended are we?) + df['Dist_From_MA20'] = (df['Close'] / df['Moving_Average_20']) - 1 + + # Bollinger Band Position (Where are we relative to volatility?) + std_20 = df['Close'].rolling(20).std() + upper_band = df['Moving_Average_20'] + (std_20 * 2) + lower_band = df['Moving_Average_20'] - (std_20 * 2) + df['BB_Pos'] = (df['Close'] - lower_band) / (upper_band - lower_band) + + # Log Returns (Better for AI than pct_change for statistical normality) + df['Log_Return'] = np.log(df['Close'] / df['Close'].shift(1)) + + # This is our training metric of 5 days ahead + df['Target_Close'] = df['Close'].shift(-5).pct_change() + + # for Up (> 0.5%), -1 for Down (< -0.5%), 0 for Flat + df['Target_Direction'] = np.where(df['Target_Close'] > 0.005, 1, np.where(df['Target_Close'] < -0.005, -1, 0)) + + # Volume Change + df['Volume_Chg'] = df['Volume'].pct_change() # Return new df with new features return df